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Figures show large rise in Scottish pensioners by year 2043

By Alistair Whitfield

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SCOTLAND will have 240,000 more pensioners over the next 25 years while its working population will reduce by 7000.

These projected figures, released today by the National Records of Scotland (NRS), anticipate that deaths will outweigh births each consecutive year until the year 2043.

Life expectancy is projected to increase for both men and women, although the gap between male and female lifespans will narrow.

The average baby girl born in the year 2043 will live to the age of 83.8 and the average baby boy to 80.6.

Chief Executive of the National Records of Scotland and Registrar General for Scotland Paul Lowe said: "Scotland’s population is projected to continue increasing, but at a slower rate than it has done in previous years.

"Past trends suggest that there could be more deaths than births in the next few years, with migration to Scotland projected to be the only driver of population growth.

"Over the next 25 years, there are projected to be a growing number of older people, fewer children, and the working age population is projected to make up a slightly lower proportion of our total population given the expected increase to the pensionable age population."

Fiona Hyslop, the Cabinet Secretary for Culture, Tourism and External Affairs stated that the Scottish Government had recently established a ministerial taskforce to look at Scotland’s future population challenges.

She said: "Today’s figures suggest that inward migration will be the only driver of population growth in Scotland.

"Our pension age population is projected to grow while our working age population falls, and could decline even further if EU migration is reduced.

"This is why Scotland needs inward migration to support our public services and economy, particularly in sectors like tourism, hospitality, construction and agriculture, but also to enrich and diversify our society.

"It is clear Scotland urgently needs powers to deliver a tailored immigration system so we can mitigate against the risks of the UK Government’s increasingly restrictive policies and ensure Scotland can continue to be a welcoming, progressive and diverse country."

The most recent population projections from the NRS state that between 2018 and 2026 Moray’s population will increase from 95,520 to 100,251 which is a rise of 4.4%.

However, a report given to recent meeting of Moray Council's planning and regulatory services indicated that, while useful, these projections should be treated with caution.

Officers wrote that shortly after the millennium the projected figures were incorrectly indicating Moray's population would fall to below 80,000 by the year 2018.



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